Value Monitoring Blog

Let’s take a moment to discuss an important issue that’s becoming more common—and more sophisticated—especially for people with retirement savings. The New York Times published a detailed story about a …

As President Trump’s second term starts to unfold, several sectors are experiencing renewed optimism, driven by his administration’s policy shifts. From financial deregulation to energy infrastructure and digital assets, these …

The U.S. equity and fixed income markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth over the past two years. Since the market lows of 2022, major indices such as the S&P …

Deciding what to do with your 401(k) after leaving a job depends on your specific financial situation, goals, and the options available to you. Here are some common choices: Before …

For about the past ten years, historically low interest rates have allowed many of us to finance the purchase of big ticket items, like a home, more easily. Now that …

Why money market funds may be a better choice than bank deposits An article last week in the Economist contained some valuable information about the differences between bank deposits and …

Even before Silicon Valley Bank failed after a bank run, but much more so since it did on March 10th, clients have been asking about where to put money where …

At the end of 2022, President Biden signed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act, 2022, commonly referred to as the SECURE Act 2.0. The Act makes a …

At Value Monitoring Inc, our first rule of investing and, more broadly, for financial planning is, “above all, avoid significant losses.”  For over a decade, this investment principle seemed almost …

In our last piece about inflation, we looked at how inflation eats away at the value of investments (and investment returns) over the years. Typically, inflation is measured as a …

Back in April of last year, we wrote a piece in which we noted that inflationary pressures were building underneath the official government statistics and that official inflation was likely …

What are credit spreads and why should I care? A credit spread is the difference between the interest rate on a risk-free bond (such as a US Treasury bond) and …

Both the stock and bond markets have been pretty rocky over the past couple weeks reminding us all that volatility still exists, even if we haven’t seen much for a …

Not so long ago, we examined the phenomenon of stocks failing to generate noticeable gains during the summer months. We noted that the old adage “Sell in May and go …

So, you are ready to invest? The following is a good mental exercise. Given the choice between an investment expected to return 15% annually over the next 5 years and …

One measure of market volatility is drawdown – the percentage drop between a peak and subsequent trough of an individual security or market index. In March 2020, the S&P 500 …

“Sell in May and go away.” It’s a long-held Wall Street truism that reflects the observation that equities tend to post negligible gains during the summer months. Below is a …

Happy Indepence Day weekend! With life beginning to return to normal in many ways, it is time to start taking stock of the changes that have taken place over a …

If you own a home and you’re paying attention to its value, you may have noticed that prices are on the rise. In some cases prices have increased substantially, and …

Is it halftime in the secular bull market? There’s no shortage of indicators and no shortage of pundits pointing to the fact that the stock market has posted tremendous gains …

Your home is not an asset? For the last several years, VMI has sponsored teams in a local Bay Area Little League. Last year, the League created banners for its …

It should come as no surprise that tax changes are on the way. You can see in the chart below that even before the pandemic, the last five years have seen …

Is inflation turning into a problem? No, it is not, at least according to the government’s metrics. The most recent April data release shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) …

You’re probably aware that Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear lately.  And you may even be aware that the price of lumber has been skyrocketing as well.  But did …

The pace of the gains in the stock market have been nothing short of amazing since the pandemic lows were hit in March of last year.  From the bottom on …

Late last year, and again in January, we looked at how the 2020-21 stock market recovery from the Covid-19 crash was tracking the 2008-2009 stock market recovery.  The similarities in …

At the beginning of March, we examined the recent bond market sell off and asked, “why you should I care?”  For pure bond investors, the answer is straight forward – …

Over the last two weeks we have seen a substantial increase in market volatlity, first downward then upward.  Talk of bubbles popping and major corrections on rising treasury yields seemed …

The market for US treasury bonds has been having a tough time of late. The yield on the 10-year note (which moves in the opposite direction of its price) started …

With stocks powering to new highs on an almost daily basis over the past few months, it seems like a good time to start asking questions such as: In the …

Consideration for Managing Your 401k As You Switch Employers As financial planners, we often have our first encounters with clients seeking assistance as a result of major life changes: marriage, …

“People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whom have …

GameStop and the January 2021 Short Squeeze “Buy low, sell high” Pretty straightforward, right? You buy something, wait for it to go up, and then when it does you sell …

A tale of two recoveries, revisited Back in mid-December, we presented a chart of QQQ (the exchange traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index) and showed how it was …

Is inflation on the way back? Bank of America conducts a monthly survey of approximately 200 institutional, hedge fund and mutual fund managers.  They ask participants about their views on …

Stocks: Time for a pause? Moving averages (MAs) are useful tools in security analyses because they smooth out prices and thereby reduce noise. In this case, let’s use simple moving …

If you thought that the stock market in 2020 seemed a little more volatile than usual, you’re not alone, and you’re not imagining it! But just how volatile was it? …

Just like “sell in May and go away,” according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the “Santa Claus Rally” is a seasonal tendency.  In this case, The Santa Claus Rally is …

“Investing is simple. It’s the financial industry that works hard to make it complex!”Robert Rolih, investor, best-selling author Sometimes simple is good. Sometimes simple is better. And sometimes simple is …

“It’s fair to say that in the 25 years I’ve been doing this I can’t remember a time when so few (if any) disputed the central narrative.  Is this a …

Chart Crimes and misdemeanors If you are on social media, you may well recognize this screen shot (see inset) of a post of a chart that purports to show the …

Fear and Greed – Time To Get Cautious? Markets are largely driven by human participants with human emotions. There are many attempts to measure human sentiment when it comes to …

We hope this message finds you safe and well as we approach Thanksgiving.  It is a time to reflect on the positive things in life, something not always easy to …

In just the past week two new vaccines have been announced with apparently high effectiveness against Covid-19.  While encouraging, this news is contrasted with skyrocketing cases of the virus both …