At Value Monitoring Inc, our first rule of investing and, more broadly, for financial planning is, “above all, avoid significant losses.” For over a decade, this investment principle seemed almost …
Update: 8/4/22
In our last piece about inflation, we looked at how inflation eats away at the value of investments (and investment returns) over the years. Typically, inflation is measured as a …
Update 4/29/22
Back in April of last year, we wrote a piece in which we noted that inflationary pressures were building underneath the official government statistics and that official inflation was likely …
Update: 2/21/22
What are credit spreads and why should I care? A credit spread is the difference between the interest rate on a risk-free bond (such as a US Treasury bond) and …
Update: 1/26/22
Both the stock and bond markets have been pretty rocky over the past couple weeks reminding us all that volatility still exists, even if we haven’t seen much for a …
Update: 10/11/21
Not so long ago, we examined the phenomenon of stocks failing to generate noticeable gains during the summer months. We noted that the old adage “Sell in May and go …
Update: 9/13/21
So, you are ready to invest? The following is a good mental exercise. Given the choice between an investment expected to return 15% annually over the next 5 years and …
Update: 8/2/21
One measure of market volatility is drawdown – the percentage drop between a peak and subsequent trough of an individual security or market index. In March 2020, the S&P 500 …
Update: 7/12/21
“Sell in May and go away.” It’s a long-held Wall Street truism that reflects the observation that equities tend to post negligible gains during the summer months. Below is a …
Update: 6/28/21
Happy Indepence Day weekend! With life beginning to return to normal in many ways, it is time to start taking stock of the changes that have taken place over a …
Update: 6/7/21
If you own a home and you’re paying attention to its value, you may have noticed that prices are on the rise. In some cases prices have increased substantially, and …
Update: 5/17/21
Is it halftime in the secular bull market? There’s no shortage of indicators and no shortage of pundits pointing to the fact that the stock market has posted tremendous gains …
Update: 5/10/21
Your home is not an asset? For the last several years, VMI has sponsored teams in a local Bay Area Little League. Last year, the League created banners for its …
Update: 5/3/21
It should come as no surprise that tax changes are on the way. You can see in the chart below that even before the pandemic, the last five years have seen …
Update: 4/26/21
Is inflation turning into a problem? No, it is not, at least according to the government’s metrics. The most recent April data release shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) …
Update: 4/19/21
You’re probably aware that Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear lately. And you may even be aware that the price of lumber has been skyrocketing as well. But did …
Update: 4/12/21
The pace of the gains in the stock market have been nothing short of amazing since the pandemic lows were hit in March of last year. From the bottom on …
Update: 3/29/21
Last week a handful of Chinese based technology stocks and American-based media stocks posted steep declines. The price drops of the hardest hit ranged from 23% to a massive 62%. …
Update: 3/22/21
Late last year, and again in January, we looked at how the 2020-21 stock market recovery from the Covid-19 crash was tracking the 2008-2009 stock market recovery. The similarities in …
Update: 3/15/21
At the beginning of March, we examined the recent bond market sell off and asked, “why you should I care?” For pure bond investors, the answer is straight forward – …
Update: 3/8/21
Over the last two weeks we have seen a substantial increase in market volatlity, first downward then upward. Talk of bubbles popping and major corrections on rising treasury yields seemed …
Update: 3/1/21
The market for US treasury bonds has been having a tough time of late. The yield on the 10-year note (which moves in the opposite direction of its price) started …
Update: 2/22/21
With stocks powering to new highs on an almost daily basis over the past few months, it seems like a good time to start asking questions such as: How long …
Update:2/15/21
Consideration for Managing Your 401k As You Switch Employers As financial planners, we often have our first encounters with clients seeking assistance as a result of major life changes: marriage, …
Update 2/8/21
“People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whom have …
Update: 2/1/21
GameStop and the January 2021 Short Squeeze “Buy low, sell high” Pretty straightforward, right? You buy something, wait for it to go up, and then when it does you sell …
Update: 1/25/21
A tale of two recoveries, revisited Back in mid-December, we presented a chart of QQQ (the exchange traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index) and showed how it was …
Update: 1/19/21
Is inflation on the way back? Bank of America conducts a monthly survey of approximately 200 institutional, hedge fund and mutual fund managers. They ask participants about their views on …
Update: 1/11/21
Stocks: Time for a pause? Moving averages (MAs) are useful tools in security analyses because they smooth out prices and thereby reduce noise. In this case, let’s use simple moving …
Update: 1/4/21
If you thought that the stock market in 2020 seemed a little more volatile than usual, you’re not alone, and you’re not imagining it! But just how volatile was it? …
Update: 12/28/20
Just like “sell in May and go away,” according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the “Santa Claus Rally” is a seasonal tendency. In this case, The Santa Claus Rally is …
Update: 12/21/20
“Investing is simple. It’s the financial industry that works hard to make it complex!”Robert Rolih, investor, best-selling author Sometimes simple is good. Sometimes simple is better. And sometimes simple is …
Update: 12/14/20
“It’s fair to say that in the 25 years I’ve been doing this I can’t remember a time when so few (if any) disputed the central narrative. Is this a …
Update: 12/7/20
Chart Crimes and misdemeanors If you are on social media, you may well recognize this screen shot (see inset) of a post of a chart that purports to show the …
Update 11/30/20
Fear and Greed – Time To Get Cautious? Markets are largely driven by human participants with human emotions. There are many attempts to measure human sentiment when it comes to …
Update 11/23/20: Happy Thanksgiving
We hope this message finds you safe and well as we approach Thanksgiving. It is a time to reflect on the positive things in life, something not always easy to …
Update 11/9/20
What Happened Last Week: A week after losing approximately 6%, stocks regained all the ground they lost (plus a little more) climbing between 7% and 9% for the week. Corporate …
Update 11/2/20
In just the past week two new vaccines have been announced with apparently high effectiveness against Covid-19. While encouraging, this news is contrasted with skyrocketing cases of the virus both …